Thoughts on Tactical Voting
One of the most frequently asked questions I’ve heard in EastGrinstead & Uckfield is about tactical voting.
I wish we didn’t have to discuss it. I want a fair voting system where people can choose who they want and not have to think tactically.
But for now, tactical voting is a reality.
People in East Grinstead & Uckfield constituency want to know who is best-placed to beat the Conservatives. I strongly believe it is LibDems.
But there is a lot of confusing and conflicting information, so I want to unpack it a bit.
WHAT DO WE KNOW FOR SURE?
Starting with what we know, I think everyone agrees that Lib Dems would have been second if this constituency had existed last time in 2019.
Exact numbers vary a bit, but they were broadly:
Con 58%
Lib Dem 23%
Lab 13.6%
Grn 4.9%
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/.../what-constituency-am-i-in...
The clear second place from last time is the reason tactical.vote recommends a Lib Dem vote to beat the Conservatives this time.
OPINION POLLS
So the key question: is there any reason to think any other party is better placed to overtake the Conservatives this time?
For that we have to look at opinion polls.
That’s hard because we don’t have direct opinion polls at local level for the constituency, so have to extrapolate from other data…
Polling analysis by New Statesman and Britain Elects analyses local party strength, local elections & likely tactical voting patterns to estimate support for each party.
It puts Lib Dems as the main challengers to the Tories, well ahead of Labour’s vote share.
This is matched by the Financial Times’ analysis, which puts Lib Dems 7 points ahead of Labour.
Source: https://ig.in.ft.com/.../ft.../uk-election-2024/v0.0.12
However, other analysis says Labour are in second, for example Electoral Calculus.
Understandably this creates confusion for would-be tactical voters.
Why the difference?
MRP POLLS
Electoral Calculus and others use ‘multilevel regression & post-stratification’ (MRP) analysis. These are often called ‘mega-polls’ because they sample 10,000 or more people.
But even the largest polls don’t have significant numbers at local level. They rely on using demographic indicators about a seat to extrapolate from national trends.
So when Labour are high nationally they will very likely be high locally.
Here’s some information about MRP polls: https://www.theguardian.com/.../how-accurate-are-mrp...
Labour are of course entitled to use the Electoral Calculus figures in their argument.
But in my opinion, MRP relies too heavily on national numbers and not enough on actual local voting patterns (unlike the New Statesman or FT analysis).
WHAT WE KNOW
If in doubt about the opinion polls, we can return to some things we know for sure:
- Lib Dems would have been second in East Grinstead & Uckfield last time
- Lib Dems are the largest party on Mid Sussex council and joint largest (with Greens) on Wealden council
- Lib Dems are the main challengers across our part of Sussex, in Lewes, Eastbourne, Mid Sussex and Horsham.
We know we can win in this area, whereas Labour has never had significant success here.
WE NEED CHANGE
People of course will make up their own minds, but I will continue to believe strongly that Lib Dems are the clear tactical choice here.
If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t be campaigning this hard. We desperately need change & I have no interest in splitting the anti-Tory vote.
As I said at the top, it is so frustrating that we have to spend so much time thinking about tactical voting.
I’d much rather be discussing issues like NHS, Planning and the Environment.
We urgently need a fair voting system so that we don’t have to argue about tactical voting.
Among many other things, a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to change our unfair electoral system for the future.